Cocoa Futures Hit Four-Month Lows as ICE Stocks Reach a 2.5-Year High

ICE cocoa futures fell to their lowest levels in four months on November 10, 2026. New York cocoa touched a four-month low of $5,096 a ton and London cocoa a three-month low of £3,891, according to Reuters, as exchange stocks rose to a 2.5-year high and chocolate demand stayed weak. Supply risk has not disappeared, however: port arrivals in Ivory Coast are running at about half of last season’s pace, and StoneX now expects a global deficit in 2026/27. For buyers of cocoa powder and cocoa butter, the market is weighing ample current stocks against a weaker crop ahead.

Exchange Stocks and Weak Demand Push Prices Lower

Cocoa inventories in ICE-monitored warehouses have risen steadily since the start of the year and reached a 2.5-year high on November 6, Barchart reported. Reuters linked the price decline to the same rise in exchange stocks and to lacklustre growth in chocolate demand, which has been reflected in weak earnings from chocolate makers.

Selling continued on November 11. Dealers told Reuters that price charts looked increasingly bearish after London cocoa closed below £4,000 a ton on November 10, and that investment funds were adding to their net short position.

Ivory Coast Arrivals Still Run Far Behind Last Season

Supply data point the other way. Exporters estimated that about 55,000 tons of cocoa reached Ivorian ports in the week ending November 8, down 48.6% from the same week last year. Dealers noted that part of the decline may reflect cocoa being smuggled to neighbouring countries rather than a smaller harvest alone.

El Niño Deficit Forecast Meets Early Doubts

On October 28, StoneX projected a global cocoa deficit of 64,000 tons for the 2026/27 season, reversing a record surplus of 494,000 tons in the previous season. The broker expects world supply to fall 9.6% as the strong El Niño affects producing countries unevenly. “The market enters the next cycle with a smaller safety margin,” StoneX said.

Some traders now question how much damage the weather pattern will do. Broker ADMIS noted that parts of West Africa were due to receive enough rain this week to raise soil moisture temporarily. “It’s possible the hype about the Super El Nino is getting a bit thin,” ADMIS said.

What the Price Drop Means for Cocoa Ingredient Buyers

• Ingredient prices follow with a delay. Cocoa powder and cocoa butter quotations are based on bean costs, so a fall in futures reaches ingredient prices gradually rather than on the same day.

• Lower prices do not remove supply risk. High exchange stocks reflect last season’s surplus, while the 2026/27 crop outlook depends on Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño weather during the mid-crop.

• Three indicators are worth tracking. The trend in ICE stocks, weekly Ivory Coast port arrivals, and West African rainfall will show whether the current price level holds.

Huanda Cocoa prices its products against the international cocoa futures market and updates quotations on the same day when futures move; fixed-period pricing can be discussed for confirmed volumes. Buyers reviewing their coverage can compare our natural and alkalized cocoa powder grades and pure prime pressed cocoa butter before requesting a quotation.

Sources

Business Recorder (Reuters) — London cocoa hits 3-month low amid stocks overhang, weak demand — November 10, 2026
Business Recorder (Reuters) — Cocoa futures hit four-month lows — November 11, 2026
Barchart — Cocoa Prices Pressured by Soaring ICE Inventories — November 6, 2026
CNBC Africa (Reuters) — Global cocoa market seen in 64,000-ton deficit as El Niño cuts supply, says broker — October 29, 2026