Cocoa Prices Drop 70% from 2024 Highs — Market Shifts to Surplus in 2026

Cocoa Prices Have Dropped Nearly 70% from Their 2024 Peak

Cocoa futures hit record highs above $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024, driven by poor harvests in West Africa, disease pressure and tight global stocks. That run is over. By early 2026, prices had fallen to around $3,000–$4,000 per ton — roughly back to levels last seen in late 2023.

The correction came from two directions at once: supply recovered and demand weakened. Better weather in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana improved crop outlooks. At the same time, high retail chocolate prices pushed consumers to buy less, and manufacturers reformulated products to use less cocoa.

Global Surplus Expected for Two Consecutive Seasons

US-based brokerage StoneX has projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 crop year and 267,000 tonnes for 2026/27. Rabobank has taken a similar position, expecting inventories to rebuild rather than tighten again in the near term. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has also indicated a possible small surplus for 2025/26 — the first in several years.

Port arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire reached 1.263 million metric tons by early February 2026 since the season started in October, though that figure was still down about 4.5% from the same period last season.

Demand Remains Weak, But May Recover Later in 2026

Weak buying interest has led to unsold cocoa piling up in both Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The Ivory Coast launched a buyback operation in January 2026 to purchase thousands of tons sitting in warehouses since November 2025. Ghana reported around 50,000 metric tons of unsold beans at its ports, with international buyers turning away due to higher prices compared to other origins.

Analysts expect demand to gradually recover in the second half of 2026. Processors typically buy 6–8 months ahead, so the current low prices will start helping margins later in the year.

What This Means for Cocoa Powder Buyers

For food manufacturers sourcing cocoa powder in bulk, the current market offers a window of more stable pricing and better availability. With surplus stocks projected through 2026/27, supply pressure is easing across the cocoa derivatives chain — including cocoa powder, cocoa butter and cocoa liquor.

That said, the market structure has not fundamentally changed. West Africa still accounts for around 70% of global production. A single bad season in Côte d'Ivoire or Ghana could tighten supply again quickly. Locking in supply arrangements during a surplus period is worth considering.

Sources

• Trading Economics — Cocoa Commodity Overview (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa)

• Bakery & Snacks — Cocoa prices crash after 2024 record highs (March 2026)

• Food Navigator — Cocoa prices: Will they remain low? (January 2026)

• Farmforce — 2025-2026 Cocoa Season Outlook