Cocoa Prices Fall Below $4,000: Global Surplus Confirmed, but Chocolate Makers Are Still Cautious
Cocoa futures dropped below $4,000 per metric tonne in February 2026 — a level not seen since late 2023. As of mid-April, prices are hovering around $3,400–$3,800, roughly 70% below the $12,931 peak hit in December 2024.
The correction has been sharp. But it has not translated into cheaper chocolate on store shelves, and most cocoa butter buyers are still moving carefully.
What Drove the Price Down
Two things converged: supply recovered and demand weakened.
On the supply side, weather conditions across West Africa improved through the 2025/26 season. Côte d'Ivoire — which produces roughly 38% of the world's cocoa — reported port arrivals of 1.45 million metric tonnes by early April, slightly ahead of last season's pace. Ghana's harvest also came in stronger than 2024, though storage quality remains a concern.
StoneX, a major commodities brokerage, projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 tonnes for 2025/26, with another 267,000-tonne surplus expected in 2026/27. Rabobank's estimate is in a similar range. After two consecutive seasons of deficit, the market has flipped.
On the demand side, the damage from 2024's price spike is still visible. European cocoa grindings fell to an 11-year low in Q4 2025. Asia's grindings dropped to a 10-year low. Chocolate manufacturers who reformulated products during the crisis — reducing cocoa content, swapping cocoa butter for vegetable fats, shrinking pack sizes — have not reversed those changes. The volume reduction is sticking.
Cocoa Butter: Prices Easing, but Not Back to Normal
Cocoa butter prices follow the bean market, but with a lag and a multiplier. During the 2024 spike, cocoa butter averaged $9,220 per tonne — a 73% jump year-on-year. As bean prices have fallen, butter prices have come down too, but they remain well above the pre-crisis levels that most chocolate manufacturers had in their cost models.
J.P. Morgan expects cocoa to stabilize around $6,000/tonne in the medium term — still double the historical average. For cocoa butter buyers, this means pricing has improved but is unlikely to return to 2022 levels anytime soon.
Why Chocolate Makers Are Not Rushing Back
Lower bean prices should be good news for chocolate producers. But the response has been cautious for several reasons:
Hedging cycles mean many manufacturers are still working through contracts signed at higher prices. The benefit of cheaper cocoa will take quarters to fully reach production costs.
Reformulated products are already in market. Switching back to higher cocoa content means re-tooling recipes, re-testing, re-labeling — all of which costs money and time.
Consumer price sensitivity has increased. Shelf prices for chocolate in the US were up 14% year-on-year in early 2026 (Datasembly). Volume declines have been real, and manufacturers are cautious about raising cocoa content if it means raising prices further.
Cocoa alternatives have gained ground. Cocoa butter equivalents (CBE), cocoa butter substitutes (CBS), and even cocoa-free formulations are now part of mainstream strategy, not just emergency fixes.
The Alternative Fats Landscape Is Shifting
The 2024 crisis accelerated the adoption of cocoa butter alternatives in ways that may not fully reverse even as prices ease. Cargill launched NextCoa, a cocoa-free ingredient range. Barry Callebaut signed a long-term agreement with Planet A Foods for oat- and sunflower-based chocolate alternatives. Bunge expanded its shea-based CBE range for Asian markets.
For products labeled "chocolate" under EU and US regulations, pure cocoa butter remains legally required. But in compound coatings, bakery fillings, snack coatings and confectionery — where the word "chocolate" does not appear on the label — alternative fats are now entrenched.
What This Means for Cocoa Buyers
For buyers sourcing cocoa butter and cocoa liquor for chocolate manufacturing, the current market offers a window. Prices have come down substantially from peak, but structural risks remain — West Africa still accounts for 70% of global production, and any weather disruption could tighten supply again quickly.
Buyers who locked in supply during the crisis at higher prices may find this a good time to renegotiate or extend contracts at more favorable terms. Those who shifted to alternative fats during the spike should evaluate whether their reformulated products are performing well enough to justify staying with substitutes, or whether returning to cocoa butter makes sense from a quality and labeling standpoint.
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