Ivory Coast Raises Cocoa Output Forecast to 2.2 MMT — But 2026/27 Risks Are Building

Ivory Coast raised its 2025/26 cocoa output forecast to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), up sharply from a previous estimate of 1.8–1.9 MMT, citing favorable weather conditions. The revision pushed ICE cocoa futures down from a 3.5-month high of $4,709 per tonne hit on May 11 to around $4,220, with further losses following through the week. At the same time, early crop surveys for 2026/27 are flagging below-average cherelle formation across West African cocoa trees — and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now puts the probability of El Niño conditions emerging at 82%. The supply picture looks comfortable for now. The risks are building for later.

What Drove the Output Revision

Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) lifted the 2025/26 production estimate by roughly 16–22% from prior guidance, pointing to improved growing conditions. Cumulative port shipment data through May 17 shows farmers delivered 1.61 MMT of cocoa beans to export ports since October 1 — up 1.9% year-on-year, confirming the stronger crop trajectory.

ICE-monitored cocoa inventories also climbed to a 1.75-year high of 2,668,548 bags as of May 7, reinforcing the near-term surplus narrative and adding downward pressure on prices.

Market Data Snapshot

The May 11 rally that preceded this selloff was partially technical in nature. Fund net short positions in NY cocoa reached 19,885 contracts — the largest speculative short in over three years. When bullish headlines hit, short-covering amplified the move. Buyers interpreting that spike as a fundamental signal should note the context.

Other Supply and Demand Signals

• Nigeria output falling: The Nigerian Cocoa Association projects 2025/26 production will drop 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT. Nigerian cocoa exports in March fell 35% year-on-year to 18,052 MT.

• North American and European grindings down: Q1 North American cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year-on-year to 106,087 MT. European Q1 grindings dropped 7.8% to 325,895 MT — the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years.

• Asian grindings bucking the trend: The Cocoa Association of Asia reported Q1 Asian grindings rose 5.2% year-on-year to 223,503 MT, significantly outperforming a forecast decline of 6.7%.

• Farmer payment crisis ongoing: In Ivory Coast, farmers in the centre-eastern region have staged protests over unpaid cocoa sales and rotting stocks, following the government's 57% farmgate price cut for the mid-crop. While traders describe the situation as localised, the risk of farmers reducing next season's crop maintenance is real.

The 2026/27 Warning: Cherelle Formation and El Niño

Early crop surveys for the 2026/27 West African season show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees. Cherelle — the small developing cocoa pods — are a leading indicator for main crop volume, which begins harvesting in October. Below-average formation now signals potential weakness months ahead.

NOAA has revised its El Niño probability upward to 82% for emergence between May and July, persisting through year-end, with a 67% chance of a "Super El Niño." Warmer, drier West African conditions under El Niño would directly stress the 2026/27 main crop at a moment when the trees are already under pressure.

As of late March, drought conditions already covered more than half of Ivory Coast and roughly two-thirds of Ghana. The combination of poor cherelle formation, fertilizer shortages (partly linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz), and elevated El Niño probability has already prompted StoneX to cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT — down from 267,000 MT in January, a reduction of nearly 44%.

Global Surplus Forecasts: Still Positive, But Narrowing

A surplus still exists on paper. But the 2026/27 StoneX estimate has been cut nearly in half since January — and that was before the latest El Niño probability update. If weather deteriorates as forecasters expect, the surplus could erode faster than current projections suggest.

What This Means for Cocoa Buyers

For food manufacturers sourcing cocoa powder or cocoa liquor, the current situation has several practical implications:

• Near-term price pressure is bearish: The Ivory Coast upward revision and high ICE inventories confirm ample short-term supply. Futures are unlikely to rally sharply in the next few months unless weather dramatically worsens.

• Medium-term risks are rising: StoneX's downward revision of the 2026/27 surplus, combined with El Niño probability at 82%, means the supply picture could tighten meaningfully from Q4 2026 onward.

• Asian demand is a structural positive: Q1 Asian grindings grew 5.2% against an expected decline. For buyers in Asia-facing markets, this is a reminder that regional demand fundamentals remain solid even as Western consumption slips.

• Forward pricing window is open: Current prices near $4,200/tonne remain well below the 2024 peak above $12,000/tonne. Buyers with 12–18 month horizons may want to assess forward coverage options before El Niño conditions either materialize or are ruled out by August crop surveys.

Huanda Cocoa sources cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana and processes them at our FSSC 22000-certified facility in Cambodia. We monitor origin conditions continuously as part of our procurement planning. To discuss supply specifications or availability, contact our sourcing team directly.

Sources

• StockPil — Cocoa Prices Slide to Two-Week Lows as Global Supply Outlook Brightens (May 19, 2026)

• Barchart via RWA Times — Cocoa Prices Slump on Projections of Higher Ivory Coast Cocoa Deliveries (May 14, 2026)

• Barchart via Yahoo Finance — Cocoa Prices Jump on a Weak Outlook for the West African Cocoa Crop (May 6, 2026)

• CropGPT — Cocoa's Weather Risk Rally Collides with a Growing Global Surplus (May 2026)

• Trading Economics — Cocoa Price Data (May 2026)

• Barchart — Cocoa Futures Prices (May 17–19, 2026)

• CocoaIntel — Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals May 2026