Nigeria's Cocoa Exports Rise 18% in July as 2026/27 Output Forecast Falls
Nigeria's cocoa bean exports rose 18% year on year in July 2026 to 16,052 metric tonnes, extending a strong shipping season for the world's fifth-largest producer. June exports had already climbed 30% year on year to 18,922 tonnes. The near-term supply picture from Nigeria is comfortable, but the forward signal points the other way: the Cocoa Association of Nigeria projects 2026/27 production to fall 11% to about 305,000 tonnes. Buyers treating Nigeria as an alternative West African origin face a market that is well supplied today and tighter from the fourth quarter onward.
The export numbers
Two consecutive months of strong shipments stand out in the trade data:
June 2026: 18,922 tonnes exported, up 30% year on year.
July 2026: 16,052 tonnes exported, up 18% year on year.
High prices through the 2025/26 season pulled Nigerian beans into export channels quickly, and farmers had every incentive to sell early rather than store. The volumes added to a record West African shipping season, with Ivory Coast port arrivals up 20% year on year at 2.11 million tonnes, and helped push ICE exchange inventories to a two-year high of nearly 3.39 million bags in early August.
The forward forecast points down
The Cocoa Association of Nigeria expects the 2026/27 crop to fall about 11% to roughly 305,000 tonnes. The drivers match the rest of the region: aging tree stock, disease pressure, and the expected El Niño pattern, which typically brings hotter and drier conditions to West Africa during the main crop establishment phase that begins in October. The US Climate Prediction Center assessed in July that the emerging El Niño could rank among the strongest in more than 75 years.
Nigeria's forecast sits alongside similar downgrades: Ghana's COCOBOD projects a fall of at least 13% to 650,000 tonnes based on pod-count surveys, and early assessments put Ivory Coast's 2026/27 main crop near 1.8 million tonnes, down 18%. StoneX has cut its global 2026/27 surplus estimate to 25,000 tonnes, effectively a balanced market.
What this means for cocoa ingredient buyers
Three practical points follow for buyers considering Nigerian supply:
Use the current window. Nigerian beans are available now at a market still carrying two-year-high exchange stocks. Nearby prices reflect current supply, not the 2026/27 forecasts.
Lock forward cover selectively. With an 11% national decline projected and El Niño risk on top, Q1 2027 onward contracts from any West African origin carry a different risk profile than spot purchases.
Test Nigerian origin in blends. Nigerian Forastero beans work well in standard cocoa powder specifications and blend programs. Buyers whose specs reference Ghanaian beans should qualify Nigerian or Asian equivalents before 2026/27 pricing firms up.
Huanda Cocoa grinds and supplies natural and alkalized cocoa powder from plants in Indonesia, China, and Cambodia, with blend specifications that accommodate multiple West African and Asian origins. Buyers reviewing origin exposure for 2027 contracts can reach our team through the contact page.
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